Agrarian Economy 2021 Т. 14 № 1-2:91-102

Forecasting demographic changes on rural areas in the regions of Ukraine

Matviishyn Ye., Doctor of Economics, associate professor
National Academy for Public Administration under the President of Ukraine
Dziurakh Yu., Doctor of Philosophy on Public Management and Administration
Lviv Polytechnic National University

https://doi.org/10.31734/agrarecon2021.01-02.091

ANNOTATION

The proposed forecast calculations involve three stages. At the first stage, the rates of population changes are calculated in all one-year age groups of the female and male rural population in each region of Ukraine. At the second stage, fertility rates and the number of rural women of the most reproductive age are calculated for each region of Ukraine. The third stage reveals annual changes in the sex and age structure of the rural population in each region until 2040. For each year, the number of a specific one-year age group of females and males is calculated by multiplying the number of the one year younger age group in the previous year by the corresponding population change rate. The forecast value of the first age group is determined according to the number of rural women of the most reproductive age and fertility rates in this region of Ukraine. The fertility rates have different values: from less than 1.0 (Luhansk, Donetsk, Sumy, Cherkasy, and Chernihiv Region) to 1.8 (Rivne Region). These values are much smaller than necessary for the normal replacement of the population.

The results show that the rural population will decrease in all regions of Ukraine by 2040, except Kyiv Region (where the population is projected to grow by about 20%, apparently because of migration processes). The rural population will decrease by 38–39% in Chernihiv and Sumy Regions by 2040, and negative changes of less than 10% are forecast only in Volyn and Rivne Regions. A decrease is projected in the rural population by 10–37% in other regions. The demographic burden will decrease on the working-age rural population in most regions by 2040, apparently due to a significant decrease in the population under 16 years of age.

KEY WORDS

demographic burden, demographic forecasting, rural population, sex and age structure of the population

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